Signs of recovery in Irish labour market

The most recent Manpower Employment Outlook Survey shows signs of improvement in the Irish labour market, predicting that the hiring climate will improve over the next quarter although uncertainty remains amongst Irish employers. The Net Employment Outlook stands at -1 per cent for Quarter 4 2010, having improved both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year, by five and seven percentage points, respectively. The Net Employment Outlook is calculated by taking the percentage of employers anticipating an increase in total employment (four per cent) and subtracting from this the percentage expecting to see a decrease (seven per cent). This figure of -3 per cent is then adjusted to remove any seasonal variations in the data. Once seasonal variations are removed from the data, the Net Employment Outlook stands at -1 per cent. Krissie Davies, managing director of Manpower Ireland, commented: "Our quarterly Net Employment Outlooks this year have often been associated to those reported by employers in Italy and Spain notably, as the weakest in the Europe, Middle East and Africa region. However, while the hiring prospects are still negative in Ireland for Quarter 4 2010, this is the third consecutive quarter of improvement and the Outlook is up by 10 percentage points in comparison with Quarter 1 2010. Another signal that the market may be stabilising is the fact that 88 per cent of employers are telling us they intend to hold onto the staff they have." Regional results are mixed as while they mostly improve quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year, employers in three of the five regions report negative hiring intentions for the quarter ahead. Outlooks in the majority of the 11 industry sectors surveyed also reveal noteworthy and sustained improvement quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year. However, results also show that the pace of redundancies is likely to ease as the recovery strengthens on one hand and employers undertake quarterly adjustments to their workforce as they operate in an uncertain and inconsistent business environment on the other hand. Krissie Davies added: "While the survey participants are not derived from Manpower's customer base, the Manpower Ireland branches have recorded an increase in clients' need to fill long-term vacancies. The recent announcements of business expansions and new foreign investments, coupled with the encouraging activity in the export-led industries, are positive signs and will offer jobseekers more opportunities notably in the sales, customer service and admin areas. "Interestingly, employers report positive Net Employment Outlooks in the finance, insurance, real estate and business services sector and the restaurants and hotels sector, which will create additional jobs. Nevertheless, the positive trend remains fragile as the survey results over the year showed repeated discrepancies from one quarter to another and the business climate in Europe is still to stabilise." Employers in three of the five Irish regions surveyed anticipate negative headcount growth for the forthcoming quarter. The Net Employment Outlook in Leinster is a disappointing -2 per cent. The Outlook is relatively stable quarter-over-quarter and employers report a considerable 14 percentage point improvement year-over-year. Globally, the strongest job prospects are reported by employers in China (+47 per cent), Taiwan (+40 per cent), India (+38 per cent) and Brazil (+37 per cent).