Paul Hopkins: Our scorched earth... and childhood days of summer
Paul Hopkins
With the heatwave back once more, if you think this is as good as it gets, think again. New research shows that Ireland could reach peak temperatures of up to 45C (113F) within the next 30 years.
Prolonged periods of heat above 40C would also bring about far-reaching impacts on our daily life including on our already erratic water supply, food production and on our health.
In the 50 years since the often-recalled record-breaking heatwave of 1976 – remember that? – scientists say that the influence of human-induced climate change means that should similar weather patterns occur again we could expect our weather to be so much hotter.
According to Ed Hawkins, Professor of Climate Science at the University of Reading, even peak temperatures this summer are 3-4C higher and more in some locations compared with those back n 1976.
Warming has been happening at the rate of
approximately 0.25C a decade since 1976. Not only does this mean a more widespread area experiencing a prolonged spell of temperatures above 30C, but a large part of Ireland would see highs of 34-38C.
According to Hawkins, such heatwaves will also become more common in the years ahead and "what felt like a freak event to grandparents in 1976 will become a new normal for their grandchildren".
A future forecast, using climate models, for a heatwave in just 30 years' time shows parts of south-east Ireland reaching up to 45C – temperatures unimaginable in 1976.
While the summer of 1976 remains a standout period in our climate history, some aspects of it have already been eclipsed. There have been five summers since that one 50 years ago – can you name any year? – have been hotter in terms of the average (day and night combined) temperature, and the highest temperature of 35.9C that summer has been exceeded on six occasions in the last decade alone.
The warmer world in which we now live means the intensity and frequency of future heatwaves will force us to change our daily lives. Daily routines will need to be adapted, work hours shifted, summer sporting events moved to cooler seasons, and buildings and infrastructure made more resilient.
One of Ireland's leading climate scientists has warned we should all be "petrified” of the future heatwaves that could be driven by climate change. Professor Peter
Thorne, director of the Irish Climate Analysis and Research Units group at Maynooth University and chairman of the Climate Change Advisory Council, says we should be "panicking” now as conditions could ultimately become "unsurvivable”.
Oh, dear ...
Scorched into the minds of those of us still around today, the heatwave of 1976 is still recognised as one of our most iconic weather events. Images of dried river beds, near-empty reservoirs and queues of people waiting their turn to collect water from standpipes accompany memories of relentless sunshine and heat.
The summer stood out for not just how high temperatures got, but also for how long the heat lasted.
The country experienced two distinct peaks: one that straddled the end of June and early July, with another through the middle part of August.
There were an incredible 15 consecutive days, from June 23 to July 7, where some places recorded a temperature of 32.2C (90F) or higher.
All of which prompts the question how come the summers of old, when a child and teenager, seem to have been much longer and so much hotter?
Growing up, summers seem to have lasted forever. It felt like the season had no end. In adulthood we are all too aware of the fleeting nature of summer – from the moment it begins.
So what gives? How does the season that once felt never-ending now seem to disappear before we have even time to find the sunscreen? According to scientific thought the answer lies in the mechanic sof memory, specifically which moments get stored and which ones simply slip away.
When we look back to those crazy days of summer, our sense of how long they lasted comes down to how many moments we actually remember of that time in our young lives. The novel experiences – firsts, surprises, anything that caught our brain off-guard – are the moments most likely to stick. In childhood, those moments are everywhere. Everything is happening for the first time. Everything seems new, and therefore our memories more pronounced and drawn out. Hence, the summers seemed longer and hotter.
As we get older, most things no longer seem like the first time. The many summers, the many Christmases and birthdays are merely compacted into chunks of memory to which we seldom give more than a passing thought.
If ever ...