Changed landscape will see FG and Labour looking for seat gains

With the political landscape changed so dramatically in the last four years, political analysts from all parties admit that predicting the outcome of the election in Meath East is extremely difficult. Fine Gael is confident of sitting TD Shane McEntee's re-election and hopes are high within the party that his running mate, Cllr Regina Doherty, could take a second seat for the party in this constituency. The absence of poll-topper Mary Wallace from the 2007 election race this time around, after over 20 years in Dail Eireann, means that, like Meath West, where Noel Dempsey has also left the scene, the entire constituency is thrown open. This, combined with constituency boundaries changing, makes predicting the outcome especially difficult. Cllr Doherty has a solid base in the Ratoath area and south of the constituency generally, and with her party's current popularity, she could be one of those well-placed to take a seat. However, canvassers from all parties believe there will be a close fought contest between Cllr Doherty, Fianna Fail's sitting TD Thomas Byrne, and Labour's Senator Dominic Hannigan for the final two seats. Hannigan (11.9 per cent) and Doherty (10.1 per cent) were the two closest runners-up, respectively, to the three elected TDs, Wallace, Byrne and McEntee, on the last occasion, and the absence of former Labour TD turned independent, Brian Fitzgerald, on the ballot paper this time, will be of benefit to both of them, as both transferred well from the Kilcloon councillor on the last occasion, with Doherty actually taking more than Hannigan. When Doherty was eventually eliminated on the seventh count, she pushed McEntee across the line and he was elected, and FF's Byrne followed without reaching the quota. Labour insiders have been delighted with the response they have been getting, not alone on the doorsteps in urban areas, but also in rural parts of Meath, where traditionally the Labour vote wouldn't be very strong. Senator Hannigan's vote in previous elections has always been ahead of national figures for his party and with Labour now riding high in the polls, he looks well-placed to pull in up to 25 per cent of the vote, be enough to take a seat. However, the loss of his original home base of the Meath coastline to the Louth constituency may hurt him, but he has moved to live in Dunshaughlin in recent years and has built up a strong base in the Ashbourne, Dunboyne and Dunshaughlin areas. Also, as a senator, he has had no natural constituency to work from. Most commentators are, agreed, however that Fianna Fail will no longer hold two of the three seats after the election and while sitting TD Thomas Byrne, who has been a leading spokesman for the party over the past few months, may still be in a strong position to take a seat, it is not outside the bounds of possibility that Fianna Fail could be without a sitting TD in Meath East post-election. Deputy Byrne is another candidate who has lost his natural hinterland along the coast, but has worked hard to build up a strong base in the Kells area. His high profile nationally in recent months is expected to boost his chances. However, the decision by former Fianna Fail national executive member, Sharon Keogan, to run as an independent may also eat into his vote. The Duleek-based independent is expected to pick up some of the disaffected Fianna Fail vote in that area and the fact that her partner is independent Meath County Councillor, Seamus O'Neill, will also attract votes, all of which has the potential to hurt Deputy Byrne, along with the party's poor showing in the polls. However, Fianna Fail has been putting in a lot of work on the ground in recent weeks and Cllr Nick Killian is expected to pull in a strong vote in the south of the constituency, and particularly his home base of Ratoath, which should ultimately benefit his running mate. Cllr Killian is also well-placed to take some of the large personal vote enjoyed by outgoing TD, Mary Wallace, who is not running this time. Sinn Fein is running former county councillor Michael Gallagher from Drumconrath, who is expected to increase the Sinn Fein vote in the constituency but is thought unlikely to be challenging for a seat. Ashbourne-based Joe Bonner, who received 1,170 first preferences last time out, will again be a strong community candidate, and will take votes from the larger parties again this time. Sean †Buachalla and the Green Party may not be hugely popular in Meath East, where he took three per cent on the last occasion. The party's stance on the Ward Union Hunt won't have done it any favours in the Ratoath area, where both he and the hunt headquarters are based.