Gavan Reilly: The six local elections in Meath might well be national bellwethers

It’s almost all over, bar the actual voting. For those who us who live for this stuff, it has felt like a long time coming. On Friday, there aren’t just the handful of elections that we might be thinking of: technically there are 170 different elections all running at the same time. Alongside the three European races, and the Limerick mayoral contest, there are 166 parallel elections in Local Electoral Areas. And, to keep things local, the six elections in Meath might well be national bellweathers.

Elaine McGinty trying to hold the Labour seat in Laytown-Bettystown that was won by Annie Hoey in 2019 before her elevation to the Seanad. From the outside it looks like a tall order: Hoey’s victory five years ago, at a time when Labour desperately needed some good news and some fresh blood, came off the back of a highly visible period as President of the Union of Students in Ireland. McGinty’s calling card might be her Drogheda base; but if that is her electoral safety net, it speaks little of the party’s national proposition.

For Aontú there is scope for gains and, surely, Meath is the place where it’s likely to happen. Nationally the party ended up with 1.5% last time, “hitting the crossbar” (in Peadar Tóibín’s own words) on half a dozen seats. While polling for local elections is erratic, the last one suggested a 3% share: surely enough to pull in some winners. It is an outward declaration of intent that, in a national slate of 66 candidates, three are running in Navan. And remember: if Peadar becomes an MEP, and is then re-elected a TD, sister Emer will head for Brussels and somebody else is co-opted.

And what of the Social Democrats? Ronan Moore’s win in Trim in 2019 was a sign of a national appetite for something different. Has that appetite remained? From a birdseye national perspective the SocDems’ campaign in 2024 has been a little flat; the posters are plentiful but the energy seems to have been put into the MEP races in Dublin and Midlands-North-West (where the candidates’ priorities are largely matters on which Europe is powerless).

At a time when the Sinn Féin vote is rising, hanging onto that seat will be a major achievement. It is illustrative of Sinn Féin’s optimism in the county that, where last time it ran only one candidate (incumbent Caroline Lynch, who lost), this time it’s running two. Should Aoife Drew get over the line, she will almost certainly be the country’s youngest elected official – and seats like Moore’s will be the low-hanging fruit.

And what of the independent vote? Sharon Keogan’s electoral history-making in 2019 will not be repeated, but will Amanda Smith and Geraldine Keogan hang onto the same share? Joe Bonner had half a quota to spare last time; will his flirtation with Independent Ireland (for whom he is not running) help or hinder?

Plenty to watch out for, and plenty to keep our spreadsheet figures busy in the coming week. Hopefully the whole thing ends in time for some insights in next week’s edition!