Gavan Reilly in China: Chinese leader’s Cork connection opens the door for more meetings
Micheál Martin was barely in the presence of Xi Jinping, and already the two men had found a Cork connection.
It turns out that, as an impressionable younger man, Xi read and enjoyed The Gadfly, a hugely popular 1897 novel by Ethel Voynich. Micheál Martin had read it in his teenage years too – the Taoiseach’s uncle in London used to send home interesting books for his nephew to read – but had no idea of how widely-read the book was in this part of the world.
The book tells the story of young Arthur Burton, an Catholic Englishman who decides to pursue the priesthood and moves to Italy for training. While there he is bitten by the revolutionary bug, becomes a social progressive, and slowly loses his religion while he pursues his politics more zealously.
That examination of the clash between religion and revolution – and the eventual success of the latter – made the book enormously popular in places like China, Iran and the Soviet Union in the mid-20th Century. That popularity was unknown to Ethel Voynich: she knew nothing of its success on the other side of the Iron Curtain, and went largely unpaid for its millions and millions of sales beyond Europe.
And almost 130 years after its publication, the leaders of two countries with increasing interest in each other, found themselves bonded over a book both had read as teenagers – and, to Micheál Martin’s delight, the fact its author was born in Ballintemple, only a couple of miles away from the Taoiseach’s own homestead of Turners Cross.
Those small connections can be invaluable when two influential men are trying to extract things from each other. From the Irish perspective, this is an ‘open for business’ visit: the United States can no longer be relied upon in the same way it used to, and America’s new agenda means li’l ol’ Ireland may not be entitled to the same warm welcome and friendly ear that it has come to take for granted. Ireland is in the market for new pals: Mr Xi, can we sit at your table?
Xi isn’t entirely without an agenda either. He knows that in a time of geopolitical flux, with the world becoming more multipolar – with Russia flexing its muscle, and India looking to maximise its manpower as an industrial giant – now is the time to start putting a Chinese imprint on things. China already does this staggeringly well: under Xi’s watch, the country routinely pays for infrastructure in other countries, not simply for goodwill, but to stimulate those countries’ economies so that China’s boat can rise on the proverbial tide.
Li’ ol’ Ireland, therefore, is already juggling its European affiliations and its American ideals. Why not pull it in a further eastward direction, and hope Ireland can become a sympathetic proxy – or at least a useful collaborator – in Brussels?
The Chinese State media almost spelled out this agenda: its writeup of the meeting noted that Xi hoped Ireland would use its rotating EU presidency this year to further the cause of China-EU relations.
That’s why China’s premier (effectively, prime minister) Li Qiang came to Ireland a little over two years ago, and it’s why the invitation for the return visit has come now. It’s also why the Taoiseach is getting to meet with Xi, and Li, and the chair of the national congress in a single week. Ireland is literally a small piece on the global geopolitical chessboard, but right now it’s a useful place to have friends.
That brings the Taoiseach to a difficult quandary this week: if Ireland so values the rules-based order and the multilateral approach to world affairs, does it use the forum as an opportunity to speak truth to power, and lay out some of its own concerns?
That’s especially tricky if Ireland is ostensibly trying to act in Europe’s interests as much as its own. Monday’s sit-down between Xi and Martin was the first time a Taoiseach has met with a Chinese president since 2005: should the Taoiseach use that precious time to raise concern about forcible (re)annexation of Taiwan? Or about the treatment of Uidhir Muslims in the north? Or crackdowns on dissent in Hong Kong? Europe would certainly have wanted him to, but it’s arguably in the national interest to keep schtum for a day.
Much like in the Oval Office last March, the Taoiseach’s primary job was to butter up his host and get out alive: he stressed Ireland’s respect for the One China policy (i.e. that Beijing rules Taiwan), and got commitments to deepen China’s business and economic interests. He even secured an agreement to re-examine recent tariffs on European dairy imports, introduced just before Christmas – good news for companies like Tirlán, who sell lots of cream here, and who are on the hook for tens of millions in extra costs as a result.
That’s the Irish way now: we are a small boat in choppy waters, and we cannot stir up more disruption for ourselves. The Taoiseach said as much to reporters on Monday, conceding there is “realpolitik” behind not upsetting Donald Trump (and criticising the audacious actions in Venezuela last Saturday) because there are “moving parts” to the pursuit of peace in Ukraine. The greater good, he supposes, is to bite one’s lip for now.
Officials in the Department of Foreign Affairs often say diplomacy is “a contact sport”. When Ireland was scouting for votes to join the UN Security Council in the middle of the pandemic, mandarins found it hard to read the mood of other countries: canvass someone face-to-face and you can feel their mood; do it over Zoom and you can’t read the room.
In that light it’s almost astonishing that Ireland hasn’t sent a Taoiseach to China since 2012, when Enda Kenny came cap-in-hand seeking investment to help turn our economic fortunes. We might never have the regular audience we have come to expect in Washington, but we might at least find reason to press the flesh with the world’s emerging powers a little more often.
If there is a next time, maybe someone could bring a first edition copy of The Gadfly with them. There’s people in power who’d love that kind of thing.