Gavan Reilly: Never a better time to reconsider Good Friday
Over the next two months, there will be a lot of talk about the Good Friday Agreement, feted as a historic achievement that brought invaluable peace to the island. Before going any further, let’s just state: this is true. As there are many people who still live on the island today thanks to the work of individuals like George Mitchell, David Trimble and John Hume in 1998. These individuals have rightfully earned their places in history.
But as we approach the 25th anniversary of the agreement, we should take a moment to consider whether it is still the best option or if it remains fit for purpose in its current form. For starters, one may debate how the agreement entrenches people into ‘nationalist’ and ‘unionist’ categories – and whether this is the best way to operate Northern society. While the labels were necessary in the immediate post-conflict period to ensure that both major communities were represented, it seems that they may now be hindering progress. After 25 years of relative peace, these labels might well do more harm than good by pigeonholing parties and their voters into sectarian boxes.
Another issue is that Northern society no longer looks like it did in 1998 - with not just two major communities, but three. The middle ground, represented by parties like the Alliance, now commands almost as much support as those with polar biases. However, the arrangements of the agreement do not allow for this growing middle ground to be adequately represented: in fact it remains technically possible for an Executive to be formed without them. Those at either end of the spectrum can collapse the arrangement, but not the moderates in the middle.
Now’s a good time for stocktaking, especially as we (possibly) come out of a lengthy logjam involving Westminster and Brussels. The scale of debate and negotiation about the post-Brexit trading arrangements has come about only because the DUP refuses to form a new executive in Stormont as long as the north is on a different regulatory footing to Britain. This is what created a constitutional crisis in Belfast, and left the institutions of the Good Friday Agreement in indefinite limbo.
Were the UK to reach a deal to abolish physical checks at the sea border but leave the North under the eventual remit of the European Court of Justice – as is expected under this – then the DUP has to decide whether to return to power sharing, or pull out of Stormont and leave the institutions in permanent abeyance. What then? Is it back to the drawing board, yet again, for Rishi Sunak and his ministers? Is it back to the drawing board for figuring out how Northern Ireland can be governed in a way that suits the majority yet leaves no minority sidelined? Or is it a collapse of all devolved local government organs, and risking a return to the darker tensions of old?
And what happens in the minds of those living in Northern Ireland under this interminable purgatory? If Unionists cannot get London to dance to their tune, might there be a realisation that they’d be a more effective minority in Dublin than in London?