Extra Dáil seat predicted for Meath East in redrawing of boundaries

With the population of Meath on the rise, the county looks set to have an extra TD in the next Dáil, more than likely in Meath East where the influx of new residents has been higher.

An Electoral Commission has been established by the Government to look at the make-up of constituencies, as the latest Census figures show that the number of people for each TD in the country is 32,022.

Article 16 of the Constitution specifies that there must be one TD for between 20,000 and 30,000 of the population. The preliminary Census results for Meath East and West show populations of 98,662, and 98935, respectively, leaving populations of 32,887 and 32,978 per TD.

The provision in the Constitution was drawn up when the population of the State was just less than three million, meaning a Dáil between 100 and 150 seats.

Largest population

For much of the past century, the ratio stayed closer to the 20,000 mark. Now, with the population at 5,123,536, the largest ever in the history of the State, it will also see the next Dáil becoming the largest ever. This will be the case even if the Electoral Commission opts for the most conservative increase in the range set out by the Minister for Local Government, Darragh O'Brien.

The commission will decide a Dáil size between 171 and 181 seats, an increase of between 11 and 21 on the current number of 160.

In 2012, the then Minister for Local Government, Phil Hogan introduced legislation reducing the number of constituencies from 166 to 158. The Meath constituencies remained unchanged.

The last election to take place in the old Meath constituency was the 2005 by-election which saw the late Shane McEntee retain the Fine Gael seat vacated by John Bruton when he was appointed European Union Ambassador to the United States. The 2007 General Election saw the growing county split into Meath East and Meath West with three public representatives in each. The 2020 election saw some further adjustments to these boundaries.

The current sitting deputies in Meath East are Fianna Fail's Thomas Byrne, Fine Gael's Helen McEntee, and Sinn Fein's Darren O'Rourke, with Fine Gael's Damien English, Aontú's Peadar Toibin, and Sinn Fein's Johnny Quirke holding the Meath West seats.

Leinster House

Harry McGee of the Irish Times, based on numerous conversations with Leinster House politicians and officials, believes Meath East will be increased to four seats, as part of population growth in Leinster, with Kildare North increasing by one to five, Longford-Westmeath increasing to five, and an extra seat for Dublin Mid-West or Dublin West, amongst other changes.

There are likely to be at least five extra seats in Dublin. Two might go to Dublin Fingal, which is a five seater – and where former Meath East Fine Gael deputy, now Senator Regina Doherty, is hoping to take a seat in her native stomping ground. This could see it split into two constituencies, one a four-seater, the other with three seats.

McGee reckons that these and other changes across the country could result in an increase of 15 seats, giving a Dáil chamber of 175 seats. All but one of the 39 constituencies (Limerick County) exceed the limit of 30,000 people per TD.

A restriction is that the constituencies have to respect county boundaries as much as possible. Meath ceded its coastal area to Louth, and took in some of Westmeath, in the last divisions.

Electoral Reform

The Minister for Heritage and Electoral Reform, Malcolm Noonan, welcomed the new, independent Electoral Commission that is directly accountable to the Oireachtas, which he says is a major milestone in the reform and modernisation of Ireland’s electoral system.

“Chaired by Ms Justice Marie Baker, An Coimisiún Toghcháin will have a range of functions that are vitally important for the integrity and robustness of our electoral system, including regulating online political advertising and protecting elections and referendums against online disinformation,” he stated.

“It will also help us ensure better representation by reviewing electoral boundaries to ensure they reflect demographic change, remove barriers to participation by researching the experiences of marginalised or disenfranchised groups, and leading on the communication of impartial, reliable information on voting, elections and referendums to everyone, including hard to reach groups.”

The establishment of An Coimisiún Toghcháin was a key commitment in the Programme for Government and follows on from the passing of the Electoral Reform Act 2022 last summer. Justice Marie Baker was appointed to the role of chairperson, completing the seven-person membership of the commission alongside four ordinary members, the Clerk of the Dáil and the Ombudsman.

Minister Noonan concluded: “This is excellent news for our democracy, and further evidence that the Greens are delivering on long-held goals in collaboration with our Government partners. Ireland is known for the high democratic standard of its electoral processes and today’s announcement ensures that this will remain the case into the future.”