Gavan Reilly: Dublin breathes relief as Rishi rushes his way to Number 10
Well, that was a mad seven weeks, wasn’t it? In a few months’ time we’ll probably have almost forgotten about the Liz Truss experiment, ending this morning on its fiftieth day. Those north of the border, or across the sea, won’t be so lucky: the catastrophic impact of the Kwasi Kwarteng era, and the perception that Britain is now a riskier bet for the world’s investors, means interest rates for domestic borrowers have risen too. It’s hard to forget the impact of Trussonomics when it means you’re paying a few hundred quid extra on your mortgage every month.
I could make an observation about how Britain could have learned from the experiences of its next door neighbour, if only it paid attention to other countries, but some things will never change. Suffice to say, nobody in Ireland would need reminding about the pain that follows when the people who are funding a government’s plans decide the risk requires a higher reward, and when a government can’t get its own ministers to agree a budget.
Parking the schadenfreude though, the government will be happy that Rishi Sunak has got the gig – and done so without the banana skin of facing a vote among Tory members, who didn’t cover themselves in glory electing his predecessor 50 days ago. Ireland and the UK are only in economic competition to a limited extent. While it’s not quite true that a British sneeze causes an Irish cold, a bigger concern is the fate of Irish businesses trading to UK customers, including those in the North. From that perspective it is in Ireland’s interests for the UK to be in better financial shape.
Of course Dublin’s interest in Sunak will go beyond matters economic. Sunak is a low-fat Brexiteer, who backed the premise but didn’t get emotionally caught up in its delivery, and who showed a pragmatic streak during the pandemic which might now be tapped into again. Britain’s momentary economic weakness means playing hardball with the EU over the post-Brexit arrangements is a riskier prospect. The collapse of the deal in a row over the Northern Ireland Protocol would represent a body blow to a fragile economy. Dublin’s calculation is that Sunak would rather reach uncomfortable compromises, for the sake of the overall economy, than charge hotheaded into a full economic war.
And then there’s the ongoing situation in Stormont. The column will be superseded by events, but the speculation is that Julian Smith would be appointed as Secretary of State for Northern Ireland. That’s a job he’s held before; readers with good memories will remember he was in situ when the institutions got back up and running in January 2020 after three months of cash-for-ash closure. The DUP will make clear their position isn’t changing – and another Stormont election will probably be triggered by the end of the week – but it’s no harm to have a collaborator who knows how to unpick a lock.