Gavan Reilly: Poll shows Sinn Fein’s hopes to lead the country could be derailed

Political nerds and pollwatchers will have been interested to see last weekend’s poll in the Sunday Independent for a couple of reasons - not all of which were related to the findings.

Last weekend’s issue is the first time the paper has run a poll carried out by Ireland Thinks, the pollster which previously supplied material for the Irish Mail on Sunday.

This might all seem like inside baseball, but Ireland Thinks are different to other pollsters in that its surveys are conducted online (but still independently) and can be all wrapped up in just a couple of hours.

Other pollsters send people out door-to-door, or stop people on the street - tried-and-tested methods which are simply a bit slower to conduct.

Some pollsters need around ten days to get a full stock of 1,000 answers from which a poll can be drawn, which can negate flash-in-the-pan stories - and makes their polls less vulnerable to violent swings in public mood - but also makes it impossible to gauge opinion on sudden scandals.

The country’s biggest-selling newspaper can now issue a poll on a Saturday morning about a hot-button issue, get a statistically robust answer, and can publish it with analysis the following day.

More meaningfully, last Sunday’s poll also revealed a curious aspect of the current Sinn Féin rise.

The party may still enjoy 33 per cent of public support - ten points ahead of its nearest challenger, Fine Gael - but that doesn’t necessarily mean SF is guaranteed to lead the next Government.

In fact, when asked for their preferences on who should form a future coalition, the most popular answer is… the current coalition, which has 38% support.

Various Sinn Féin configurations - leading the left, working with FF, working with FG - would be supported by 47% of the country, but it’s a potent reminder that there isn’t necessarily a guaranteed path to power for the party that could rightly expect one.