Gavan Reilly: Little cause for optimism: the Taoiseach is out of ideas

Here we go again. Another surge, another round of dismal projections for the future of the health service, and another bleak winter on the horizon. If human hibernation were an option, you’d suspect a lot of us would happily turn out the lights now and sleep it out until the end of February.

As the Taoiseach visited Navan yesterday the overwhelming impression is that all of our eggs are now being placed in the basket of booster vaccines. Infections among the over-85s have fallen for the last three weeks in a row, which the Taoiseach puts down to the rollout of booster doses (though it’s also likely that, with higher levels circulating, many in that group are effectively cocooning again too). NIAC’s news last night of boosters being cleared for the 50-59s is good news for them, but logistically there are obvious challenges ahead.

If we retained the same infrastructure from the summertime, when the State was rolling out 300,000 doses a week, it would be possible to get a fresh dose to everyone over 50 before Christmas.

But unfortunately we didn’t do that - we had no expectation of it still being needed, so the country’s theatres and convention centres have been returned to regular use. We have the doses, but do we have the manpower to get those doses out so quickly? Recruiting the Defence Forces is everyone’s favourite multipurpose solution, but it’s not a very effective one: only a small fraction of personnel would have the medical capability. Besides, once upon a time we all presumed two doses was enough to protect us for good. We ought not be too expectant that a fresh jab is a silver bullet.

Micheál Martin did offer two other prospective approaches for wrestling down the numbers once more. Both are depressing.

The first is the increased use of antigen testing, which now seems like a tale as old as time. It’s literally seven months since the Government received a report about the prospects for the wider use of rapid testing, without having actually introduced them in any meaningful way. Compare Ireland’s reticence to Britain’s position, where tests are available for free in NHS-funded pharmacies, so that people engaging in risky activity or interacting with the vulnerable can regularly check if they’re okay to proceed. It’s not failsafe - as evidenced by Britain’s consistently high case numbers - but it’s at least a way of filtering out people who might be unwittingly dangerous to others. Similar evidence has been sitting, unexercised, with ministers for seven months - apparently unactivated because Tony Holohan had his reservations. Scant excuse when he’s not the one in cabinet.

Micheál Martin’s other proposal is to reconsider “how we all behave, how we all socialise”. What does that mean? In the absence of any new public health recommendations (other than leave the office, and work from home) it can only mean: see fewer people. I wouldn’t be too surprised if we start hearing the phrase ‘contact budgeting’ enter the vernacular soon: if you’re going to do X, don’t do Y.

It’s beginning to look a lot like Meaningful Christmas.

The column first appeared in the Meath Chronicle print edition on Tuesday. Gavan Reilly is Political Corresspondent with Virgin Media News and Political Columnist with Meath Chronicle.