FF are tipped to win back seat at expense of FG

Nine candidates are in the running in the three-seater Meath West constituency, which takes in the towns of Navan, Trim, Enfield and Oldcastle, as well as large swathes of rural County Meath and parts of Westmeath.
The three sitting TDs - Fine Gael’s Damien English and Ray Butler and Sinn Fein’s Peadar Toibín - are all seeking re-election.
Tóibín look sets to top the poll, with party strategists from all sides appearing to agree that he is on course to comfortably regain the seat he took for the first time in 2011. He is expected to build considerably on his strong vote of around 17 per cent last time round.
Pundits are also giving Fianna Fail’s Shane Cassells a strong chance of taking back a seat for Fianna Fail. The party has taken the decision to run just one candidate this time, despite running two candidates in the 2011 election.
Last time around, Cassells and running mate Johnny Brady had almost a quota between them, despite the angry swing away from Fianna Fail. They had 18 per cent of the vote between them and now, with just one Fianna Fail candidate in the field and grassroots Fianna Fail voters coming back into the fold, Cassells looks well-placed to take a seat.
Junior Minister for Education and Skills, Damien English, topped the poll in 2011, going over the quota on the first count and his status as a junior minister will be in his favour.
However, the big question has to be whether the constituency will return three Navan TDs - something many commentators believe is unlikely.
Voters in the south of the county, especially in Trim which has had a TD since Noel Dempsey was first elected for Fianna Fail in 1987, will not want to be left without their own local representation. This could help FG’s Ray Butler and independent Trevor Golden.
Fine Gael had 36 per cent of first preferences in 2011, but it remains to be seen how much of a backlash there will be against the larger government party or if Labour takes most of the flak.
Labour came within a whisker of a seat in 2011, but with the party’s fortunes sinking below 10 per cent nationally, few are giving Tracy McElhinney much chance of success, despite the likelihood of a strong vote around her home base in Ballivor.
Independent Trim councillor Trevor Golden is a late entry into the race and hasn’t given himself much time to canvass but is still expected to poll well, particularly in the Trim area. He could even stay in the race late, with his transfers being crucial to the outcome - and this could benefit his fellow Trim candidate, Ray Butler.
Direct Democracy Ireland had surprising success in the Meath East by-election in 2013, taking third place at the height of anti-austerity anger, but it remains to be seen how their candidate in Meath West, Alan Lawes, fares on this occasion.
Green Party candidate, Seamus McMenamin, will be hoping to revive the party’s fortunes following their 2011 drubbing, but the popular Navan GP and medic to the Meath football team will be unlikely to garner enough votes to be in the reckoning,
John Malone, the independent candidate from Oldcastle who is campaigning on a Christian and jobs ticket, is a latecomer and is expected to exit the race at the early stages.
The general consensus is that Tóibín is likely to be the first to take a seat, with Cassells, English and Butler all in the shake-up for the next two.