Selling treaty a tricky task for govt

Some within government are already dramatically proclaiming that the forthcoming vote on the EU's Fiscal Treaty will be the biggest challenge the Irish people have faced since the adoption of the Anglo-Irish Treaty in 1921. It's strong stuff designed to set the scene for the battle that lies ahead for the government in getting this tricky referendum across the line. Voters face something of a dilemma. After four years of economic pain, this vote could provide everyone with a chance to say 'enough'. But shunning this agreement would be a major setback for the country - as well as for the EU's efforts to revive the flagging European economy. On the other hand, the prospect of a referendum is also giving the Irish government some leverage in its negotiations with the EU on the €31 billion of Anglo-Irish Bank promissory notes the Irish taxpayer owes. A deal on some kind of writedown is reported to be close this week and it could yet prove vital is selling the treaty to people. The first opinion polls of the campaign show that, thus far, a majority are in favour of passing the referendum, but Irish referenda have a habit of following a pattern that start out with the 'yes' camp in the ascendancy but with the 'no' side gathering momentum as voting gets nearer. The result has been a rejection of previous European governing treaties in 2001 and 2008 before they were passed at the second time of asking. On this occasion, Taoiseach Enda Kenny said this week, there will be no re-run if the Irish people reject this treaty. In terms of selling the treaty referendum, the government needs to focus on the real issues and the real consequences for the country of both and 'yes' and a 'no' vote. Inevitably, much of the debate will come around to this referendum being a vote on whether we want to remain members of the European Union and the eurozone. Those advocating a 'no' vote say this is solely about signing up to an austerity treaty which enshrines in law an economic policy that will result in perpetual austerity and hardship for workers and the unemployed in Ireland and across Europe. The vast majority of people in Ireland want to remain part of the EU and the eurozone, though our passion for Europe has certainly waned a bit in recent years, and particularly since the onset of the financial and debt crises. This vote, nonetheless, will give the Irish electorate an opportunity to reaffirm its commitment to the euro. As a small open economy which depends on exports and foreign direct investment, confidence in our country and confidence in the currency we use is something that is of critical importance. While an Irish rejection of this treaty will not spell an end to the fiscal compact, as only a certain number of EU countries need to pass it, such a move would have serious implications for the country's future funding sources, particularly if we need a second bailout. A 'no' vote could see Ireland's bond yields soar again to unsustainable levels on the international money markets and we would be locked out of the EU's European Stability Mechanism (ESM), the new permanent rescue funding programme. Our €67.5 billion rescue in 2010 means the country is fully funded up to 2013, by which time the government hopes to be back borrowing in the credit markets. An Irish 'no' might release us from unduly restrictive fiscal targets, but the consequence would be to exclude us from further EU financial support. Whether we vote to accept or reject the Treaty on Stability, Co-ordination And Governance in the Economic and Monetary Union, this will be a crucial decision for the country and its people, and the result will be anxiously watched throughout the continent. One of the problems there has been in the past with European referenda is that the treaties and what they contained had not been explained properly to voters. We were asked to vote for something politicians themselves hadn't bothered to read, and on that basis, voters rejected them. This battle will be won or lost on the country's doorsteps and it is incumbent on the government to get out there and fully explain all the implications of what we are voting for. The Referendum Commission also will play a crucial role in analysing the distilling the information in an objective way so that it is easy for people to comprehend. Unlike previous treaties, this one is not overly complex and is relatively short in length. It is incumbent on all of us, too, as citizens, to make the effort to read, understand and listen to the debates which will precede this vote so that we can, in the full knowledge of all the implications and consequences, make the correct decision.