FG goes all out to grab two seats in Meath West

Having taken almost 52 per cent of the vote last time out in 2007, Fianna Fail has held something of an iron grip on this constituency since Meath West came into being. This time around, it will be very different. The departure of the dominant political figure, former Transport Minister and Trim TD Noel Dempsey, has changed the political landscape and left the race for seats in this three-seater wide open. Dempsey was the party's main vote-magnet in Meath West, having polled 12,000 first preferences in 2007, with a highly disciplined transfer rate of 70 per cent to running mate Johnny Brady ensuring the party got two comfortably across the line last time out. Sources within Fianna Fail believe they can hold onto Johnny Brady's seat but acknowledge a huge slump in their vote. Fianna Fail in Meath has always been five to seven per cent ahead of the party's national vote and this would bring them into early to mid-20 per cent range, according to recent polls - and 25 per cent of the vote would secure a seat. However, some observers from other parties believe the outgoing TD will struggle, given Fianna Fail's low popularity nationally at 16 per cent. In fact, many believe it depends on just how successful his running mate, Navan councillor Shane Cassells, is at pulling in votes. While some are predicting Fianna Fail could end up without any representation in Meath West, it is also acknowledged that, when it comes to the crunch, party stalwarts throughout the county will come out and vote the way they always have. This constituency has been a Fianna Fail heartland and it is difficult not to see it not returning one TD on this occasion. Having said that, sitting Fianna Fail TDs everywhere will be under major pressure to hold their seats. Keen political observers and election workers of every political hue seem to agree that sitting Fine Gael TD, Damien English, will hold his seat. Indeed, Fine Gael is hoping it could take two of the three seats and has been met with an encouraging response on the doorsteps so far. However, the party acknowledges it has a fight on its hands to take two out of three. English is a popular young figure and has been gaining a profile within FG of late, with Enda Kenny handing him a deputy finance portfolio. More than likely, he will come home ahead of quota, topping the poll. Sources within the party have indicated they believe the next two seats are up for grabs between Catherine Yore (FG), Ray Butler (FG), Labour's Jenny McHugh and Sinn Fein's Peadar Tóibín. However, with three candidates, Fine Gael may be spreading itself too thinly to take a second seat. The three-candidate strategy is risky but it could pay dividends for the latecomer to the FG ticket, Cllr Ray Butler, if he can soak up enough votes in his home area of Trim. In fact, Trim will one of the key battlegrounds in the constituency with all parties vying for votes there. Poll-topper in the 2009 county council elections in Trim, Cllr Butler looks the likelier of the two other FG runners to win a seat, but high-profile young councillor Catherine Yore cannot be discounted either. Sinn Fein is particularly bullish about the prospects of its candidate, Cllr Peadar Tóibín, believing he can win the party's first Dail seat for the party in Meath in the modern era. Canvassers have been getting a good response at the doors and feel their candidate has every chance of taking the third seat. Labour, too, also believe they are in with a fighting chance as, in national polls, the party has more than 20 per cent of the vote, almost enough for a quota in Meath West. If its candidate, Jenny McHugh, can come in ahead of two of the three Fine Gael candidates on the first count, they could eventually win a seat, even if Sinn Fein is ahead of them in the initial stages. What is widely acknowledged by all parties is that up to 30 per cent of voters still haven't made their decision and this is something which will concentrate all their minds over the next couple of weeks, as each party tries to take advantage of those potential votes. One way or the other, it looks like a four-way battle for the last seat between Butler, Yore, Tóibín and McHugh, with geography and transfers playing a crucial role.