'Don't knows' hold key to referendum result

With a huge number of undecided voters yet to make up their minds about which way they will vote in this week's referendum on the Fiscal Stability Treaty, the outcome is likely to be a much closer-run thing than the weekend's final opinion polls would have one believe. It is clear from the last number of EU-related referendums in Ireland that substantial numbers of voters only make up their mind in the final week of a campaign, and they represent a very large number of people - one poll last Sunday put the number in the 'don't know' category at 35 per cent. This may mean the referendum could go either way, but it also signals that the debate to date has either not been effective in reaching a large proportion of the electorate or the issues are still not well understood by a large number of people who wish to cast their ballot and have their say. Three major polls published over the weekend show a high number of respondents still unsure of their voting intentions in Thursday's referendum. One showed 16 per cent saying they did not know how they would vote, while two others had 31 per cent opting for 'Don't Know'. European Movement Ireland has said this pointed to a clear lack of understanding amongst voters as an issue that needed to be addressed by both sides of the debate in the closing days of the campaign. It called on all sides debating the issues to focus on the core facts of what is contained in the treaty and what the tangible implications of a 'Yes' or a 'No' vote are likely to be. "It is vital now that political parties and civic society groups on both sides of the debate focus on just the facts of the Fiscal Stability Treaty so that people feel they are informed enough to vote. In the past week, more time, coverage and energy has been devoted to the principle of having a debate rather than discussing the serious implications contained within this treaty and using the many debate platforms that are already available," it said. Impartial bodies such as the Referendum Commission are tasked with giving a clear and balanced overview of the treaty and the provisions it contains. With so many people still undecided, does this indicate a failure by the commission to communicate effectively or is it simply a lack of interest or a certain apathy among a proportion of voters on an issue that is of crucial importance to the future of this country? One of the striking findings of recent opinion polls has been the high number of voters who indicated they would be voting either 'Yes' or 'No' but who had either a vague or poor understanding of the fiscal treaty. Almost one-third of those in the 'Yes' and 'No' camps admitted they arrived at their decision without a satisfactory understanding of the treaty. Those categorised as 'don't knows' reported having a poor or vague understanding what the referendum was all about. Campaign participants faced an uphill challenge this week to reach out to the many undecided voters as polling day looms. Clearly, the electorate's knowledge and trust in the sources of information during the campaign are extremely important in helping people to make up their minds. Putting forward the arguments for and against is up to the political parties and other groups and individuals involved, but if voter knowledge on the proposal being put forward is low, then this is an indication that voters do not have the requisite amount of information to ensure they can make an informed decision. UCC lecturer Dr Theresa Reidy put it succinctly when she wrote a few days ago that the campaign has been lacklustre and heavily skewed towards discussion of the medium-term funding arrangements for the State, not to mention the occasional inclusion of items completely unrelated to the treaty such as septic tank charges and property tax. "Much of the content of the treaty, she added, has been passed over in the disputes about how Ireland will finance itself in the next two years. Fiscal discipline is dull, even unpleasant, but this does not reduce the obligation on those involved in the campaign to clearly explain the issues." Despite the 'Yes' side still having a reasonable lead, once suspects it will be tight in the final analysis. With such a large number of undecided voters in the mix, the government and those advocating a 'Yes' cannot afford to be in any way complacent.