Butler and Hannigan set to lose out, says 'Tallyman'

Political analyst Noel Whelan is predicting that sitting Meath TDs Ray Butler and Dominic Hannigan are in danger of losing their seats in the upcoming general election.

As anticipation mounts for the announcement of the general election, 'The Tallyman’s Campaign Handbook- Election 2016' by leading political pundit and psephologist Whelan with Kathryn Marsh, was launched in Dublin, steps away from the Leinster House seat of power.

The book details all 40 battlegrounds at the outset of the campaign. Constituency by constituency, it assesses the performance of the parties and independents over the last five years and their likely performance in the 2016 election. The handbook also explores the key local issues which may determine fates when voters go to the polls.

For Meath East he says: ' This is one of handful of three-seaters where the government parties currently hold all the seats. Fine Gael’s all female ticket of outgoing deputies is likely to hold onto its two seats but Labour is likely to lose its one seat. The question is whether former Fianna Fáil deputy Thomas Byrne or Sinn Féin’s Darren O’Rourke will take it.

Even on a very bad day in 2011 Fianna Fáil had twice as many votes as Sinn Féin, but Sinn Féin has a different candidate this time in Darren O’Rourke. On balance Thomas Byrne seems better placed to take the seat.

In Meath West, Whelan predicts: The Sinn Féin seat seems safe. Fine Gael will win one seat and that will go to Minster of State Damien English. This is a key target constituency for Fianna Fáil who had almost three quarters of a quota even on a bad day in 2011. The second Fine Gael seat held by Ray Butler is in jeopardy and Fianna Fáil is likely to take it even though that means there will be three TDs from Navan.

As anticipation mounts f'or the announcement of the general election,“The Tallyman’s Campaign Handbook- Election 2016' by leading political pundit and psephologist Noel Whelan with Kathryn Marsh, was launched in Dublin, steps away from the Leinster House seat of power.

For the fourth election in a row, Whelan and other leading electoral commentators have created a uniquely detailed guide to the national political landscape; key policy issues and the concerns which will dominate the election debate. The book also explores the likely campaign strategies of each of the parties and examines how new gender quotas, campaign finance regulations, postering restrictions, turnout, and the impact of social media will shape the campaign environment.

Noel Whelan is the author and co-author of a number of books on politics, elections and electoral law in Ireland. He writes a weekly political column for The Irish Times and is a regular commentator on politics and current affairs for the broadcast media. He is a practising barrister on the Dublin and South Eastern circuits.

The Tallyman’s Campaign Handbook is supported by Paddy Power and published by The Liffey Press in paperback from €19.95 at bookshops, or online from: www.theliffeypress.com.